Öz
Bu çalışma Türkiye için iklim değişikliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini 1990-2021 dönemi yıllık gözlemler doğrultusunda, kesirli frekans değerleri dikkate alabilen Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testiyle araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu anlamda Cobb-Douglas üretim fonksiyonundan hareketle, iklim değişikliğinin en önemli parametrelerinden birisi olan sıcaklık düzeyi ile temel ekonomik parametreler (sermaye stoku, işgücü miktarı ve kentleşme) analizlere dâhil edilmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme sonuçları seriler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen uzun dönem katsayılar ise Türkiye için sıcaklık düzeyi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde negatif bir ilişkinin bulunduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu durum küresel ısınmanın neden olduğu iklim krizinin Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme performansını olumsuz yönde etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu anlamda iklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerini azaltacak yönde küresel işbirliklerine dâhil olunması ve ayrıca özellikle üretim süreçlerinin uyum ve sınırlama politikaları ile desteklenmesi, Türkiye ekonomisinin geleceği açısından oldukça kritik bir önem arz etmektedir. Son olarak sıcaklık parametresi dışında kalan sermaye stoku, işgücü miktarı ve kentleşme değişkenlerinin ise Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme performansı üzerinde pozitif etkilere sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
İklim Değişikliği Ekonomik Büyüme Fourier ADL Eşbütünleşme Testi Türkiye
Kaynakça
- Abidoye, B. O., ve Odusola, A. F. (2015). “Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis”. Journal of African Economies, 24(2), 277-301.
- Alagidede, P., Adu, G., ve Frimpong, P. B. (2016). “The Effect of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa”. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 18(3), 417-436.
- Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., ve Lee, H. (2017). “Fourier ADL Cointegration Test to Approximate Smooth Breaks with New Evidence from Crude Oil Market”. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
- Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L., ve Strobl, E. (2010). “Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2), 350-366.
- BP (2019). Statistical Review of World Energy (68th edition). London.
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., ve Raissi, M. (2017). “Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño”. Journal of International Economics, 106, 37-54.
- Christopoulos, D. K., ve León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). “Smooth Breaks and Non-linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
- Dell, M., Jones, B. F., ve Olken, B. A. (2008). “Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century (No. w14132)”. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Doğanlar, M., Mike, F., ve Kızılkaya, O. (2022). “The Impact of Climate Change on Aggregate Output in Middle‐and High‐Income Countries”. Australian Economic Papers, 61(1), 72-86.
- Enders, W., ve J. Lee (2012). “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey–Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
- Ilkay, S. C., Yilanci, V., Ulucak, R., ve Jones, K. (2021). “Technology Spillovers and Sustainable Environment: Evidence from Time-Series Analyses with Fourier Extension”. Journal of Environmental Management, 294, 113033.
- Jones, B. F., ve Olken, B. A. (2010). “Climate Shocks and Exports”. American Economic Review, 100(2), 454-59.
- Kahn, M. E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R. N., Pesaran, M. H., Raissi, M., ve Yang, J. C. (2019). “Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis (No. w26167)”. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Lanzafame, M. (2014). “Temperature, Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa”. Empirical Economics, 46(1), 1-18.
- Nordhaus, W. D. (2006). “Geography and Macroeconomics: New Data and New Findings”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(10), 3510-3517.
- Phillips, P. C., ve Hansen, B. E. (1990). “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes”. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
- Stern, N. (2006). “What is the Economics of Climate Change?”. World Economics, 7(2), April-June 2006, 1-10.
- Stern, N. (2008). “The Economics of Climate Change”. American Economic Review, 98(2), 1-37.
- Tebaldi, E., ve Beaudin, L. (2016). “Climate Change and Economic Growth in Brazil”. Applied Economics Letters, 23(5), 377-381.
- Tol, R. S. (2018). “The economic Impacts of Climate Change”. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 12(1), 4-25.
Öz
This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on economic growth in Turkey by using Fourier ADL cointegration analysis, which considers the fractional frequency values, for yearly observation from 1990 to 2021. Following the Cobb-Douglas production function, the analysis included main economic parameters (capital stock, labour force and urbanization) and also temperature which is one of the most important indicators of climate change. The Fourier ADL cointegration results reveal the existence of a long run relationship between the series. The long-run coefficients indicate that there is a negative relationship between the temperature level and economic growth in Turkey in the long run. This means that the climate crisis caused by global warming negatively affects Turkey's economic growth performance. In this context, it is of critical importance for the future of the Turkish economy to be included in global cooperation to reduce the negative effects of climate change, and also to support especially the production processes with adaptation and mitigation policies. Finally, capital stock, labour force and urbanization parameters have positive and statistically significant effects on Turkey's economic growth performance in the long run.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Climate Change Economic Growth Fourier ADL Cointegration Test Turkey
Kaynakça
- Abidoye, B. O., ve Odusola, A. F. (2015). “Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis”. Journal of African Economies, 24(2), 277-301.
- Alagidede, P., Adu, G., ve Frimpong, P. B. (2016). “The Effect of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa”. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 18(3), 417-436.
- Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., ve Lee, H. (2017). “Fourier ADL Cointegration Test to Approximate Smooth Breaks with New Evidence from Crude Oil Market”. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124.
- Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L., ve Strobl, E. (2010). “Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(2), 350-366.
- BP (2019). Statistical Review of World Energy (68th edition). London.
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., ve Raissi, M. (2017). “Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño”. Journal of International Economics, 106, 37-54.
- Christopoulos, D. K., ve León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). “Smooth Breaks and Non-linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093.
- Dell, M., Jones, B. F., ve Olken, B. A. (2008). “Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century (No. w14132)”. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Doğanlar, M., Mike, F., ve Kızılkaya, O. (2022). “The Impact of Climate Change on Aggregate Output in Middle‐and High‐Income Countries”. Australian Economic Papers, 61(1), 72-86.
- Enders, W., ve J. Lee (2012). “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey–Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
- Ilkay, S. C., Yilanci, V., Ulucak, R., ve Jones, K. (2021). “Technology Spillovers and Sustainable Environment: Evidence from Time-Series Analyses with Fourier Extension”. Journal of Environmental Management, 294, 113033.
- Jones, B. F., ve Olken, B. A. (2010). “Climate Shocks and Exports”. American Economic Review, 100(2), 454-59.
- Kahn, M. E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R. N., Pesaran, M. H., Raissi, M., ve Yang, J. C. (2019). “Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis (No. w26167)”. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Lanzafame, M. (2014). “Temperature, Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa”. Empirical Economics, 46(1), 1-18.
- Nordhaus, W. D. (2006). “Geography and Macroeconomics: New Data and New Findings”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(10), 3510-3517.
- Phillips, P. C., ve Hansen, B. E. (1990). “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes”. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
- Stern, N. (2006). “What is the Economics of Climate Change?”. World Economics, 7(2), April-June 2006, 1-10.
- Stern, N. (2008). “The Economics of Climate Change”. American Economic Review, 98(2), 1-37.
- Tebaldi, E., ve Beaudin, L. (2016). “Climate Change and Economic Growth in Brazil”. Applied Economics Letters, 23(5), 377-381.
- Tol, R. S. (2018). “The economic Impacts of Climate Change”. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 12(1), 4-25.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Erken Görünüm Tarihi | 5 Temmuz 2023 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 18 Temmuz 2023 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 13 Mayıs 2023 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2023 Sayı: 57 |
Kaynak Göster
- Makale Dosyaları